How is the war in Ukraine perceived in Russia?

The short and boring answer is: we don’t know exactly what Russians know about the war and what they think of it.

It is extremely difficult to obtain reliable survey data from Russia. On the one hand, the very conduct of surveys is subject to severe restrictions. On the other hand, people in Russia know that the regime is authoritarian. That is why they are very cautious about what they say. Poll results suggesting Putin’s popularity should therefore also be treated with caution.

State propaganda is certainly very effective. It conveys to people, for example, that Ukraine started the war, that the West provoked it, and that Russia is merely defending its security interests. Many people watch state television. The less educated they are and the further away they live from the centres of Moscow and St Petersburg, the higher the proportion of those who actually believe this narrative.

Furthermore, it should not be underestimated that people in Russia have been exposed to nationalist propaganda since the Soviet era. This has shaped their view of the world. At the same time, there are now ways to access critical information via VPNs or Telegram channels. So anyone who wants to can find out more. But to even look for it in the first place, you usually have to already have a critical mindset.

Keeping the war at arm’s length as far as possible

Both researchers working with data from Russia and my personal contacts in the country report that a great many people are acting as if the war does not exist at all. They are trying not to let the situation get to them.

In regions where mobilisation is intensifying or which are more frequently targeted by Ukrainian drones, this becomes more difficult. In Moscow and St Petersburg, on the other hand, the regime goes to great lengths to keep the war out of people’s everyday lives.

The situation is different if you live in a city or region where many men are being conscripted, are killed in action, or return with comparatively large sums of money. In some rural regions, people are actually becoming significantly wealthier as a result of the war. Compensation paid to the bereaved families of fallen soldiers can also be very high. In some cases, this leads to cynical forms of enrichment and corruption.

See, for example:

Watson: ‘Black Widows’ and the deaths of Russian soldiers

And here:

Die Zeit: Women in Russia and the war

Between knowledge, denial and propaganda

In other words: some Russians have a very direct experience of the war and even benefit from it. Others are well informed because they were already critical of the regime beforehand.

Conversely, those who are prepared to follow the nationalist and imperialist narratives that have been propagated for decades are more likely to believe the state’s information about the war.

Russian society cannot therefore simply be divided into ‘informed’ and ‘uninformed’. Rather, there is a coexistence of knowledge, denial, propaganda, personal involvement and a conscious search for information.

Thank you very much for your question! I’m happy to answer any further questions.