Dear Kijan
I’m very happy to write to you to gain a slightly better understanding of what is currently happening in Iran and what hopes are associated with it – including, and particularly, for women. I find it very difficult to make sense of what is going on. I’m also writing on behalf of savoir public, which we increasingly see as a medium – with the mission of sending Minerva’s owl into the world now and then, even before dusk.
My question to you is as follows: How can we better understand Iran in a global context, and particularly in relation to the US?
a) What links exist between the protests for democracy, human rights and women’s rights, the uprisings caused by food insecurity, the US sanctions, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and the US attack in June?
b) Where does Russia actually stand? And China? Any other key players?
c) What role does the EU play in this complex situation?
d) And what scope for action does Switzerland have – in terms of protecting people from state arbitrariness, if not in terms of promoting forces committed to democracy, human rights and women’s rights?
Warm regards
Corinna
Dear Corinna
It would take a whole book to answer that – there are so many questions.
Here’s a quick reply, written down on the spur of the moment, more as a citizen offering my political assessment to supplement what I’ve just posted in NZZ just published. (As a historian, I can’t really claim to predict the future.)
The West’s role
We are witnessing a revolution of world-historical significance. The outcome has not yet been decided. The West will play a central role in determining whether the regime falls. We have no reliable opinion polls, because they simply do not exist. Nevertheless, it is fair to say that a large proportion of the people in the country – and also outside it – are calling for help from the US, Israel and Europe. People are not naive; they know the history and the risks of foreign intervention. Nevertheless, they are calling for help because they know what the regime is capable of.
There are, after all, historical examples where outside help has brought about a positive turn of events. For instance, support from France played a significant role not least in the founding history of the US; the Nazis were not overthrown from within; and Iraqi Kurds, too, have their own view of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein with US assistance, which differs from the narrative – so popular here – of an attack in breach of international law.
Anyone who now argues against external military support is indulging in cheap European anti-Americanism whilst remaining silent on the fact that foreign powers have long been supporting the Islamic regime, China, Russia, and Shia militias from Iraq and Afghanistan, is abandoning unarmed people to the mercy of murderers.
Good reasons for hope
As with any revolution, there are risks and many unknowns. But these must be weighed against the known risks should the regime remain in power: We are dealing with a regime that maintains a military occupation of its own country, carries out massacres using live ammunition, destabilises the entire region with the help of foreign mercenaries and, moreover, promotes terrorism worldwide, with the ultimate aim of conquering Israel and subjugating the West. There are therefore good reasons to hope that the situation will improve if the regime is overthrown – not least through foreign assistance.
Geopolitical Shift
Regardless of one’s stance on the matter, one thing is clear: should the Iranian people manage to free themselves from the yoke of the mullahs, the geopolitical implications of the regime’s downfall would be enormous. Russia and China would lose a key ally in the fight against “the West” – an ally with vast oil and natural gas resources, which is just one factor among many.
Furthermore, an epicentre of Islamist terror, anti-Zionism and global jihad, which influences many minds not only in the Muslim world but, as the reactions to the Hamas terrorist attack on 7 October 2023 have shown, increasingly in Western cities as well.
Furthermore, there would be no more cheap oil from Iran for Beijing, no more drones for Putin, no more support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the like, and no more anti-Western Islamist propaganda material for the timelines on TikTok.
Values of classical modernity
There is a great deal at stake: at best, the free world could hope for a strong ally at the heart of this geopolitically contested region. At a time when many believe an era of authoritarian regimes has dawned, the Iranian people are swimming against the tide of history and risking their lives for the values of classical modernity.
The hope, strength and willingness to make sacrifices shown by the people of Iran could also inspire our own postmodern societies, which are at odds with themselves. They remind us that: freedom and democracy cannot be taken for granted.
Thank you very much for the accurate and informative answer.