I still lack a reliable understanding of current developments in Iran – not only because of internet blocks, but for a more fundamental reason: despite increasing media attention, many of the dynamics remain difficult to make sense of.
What are the key lines of conflict shaping the current protests in Iran?
In Western democracies, social conflicts are often described in terms of specific polarities, such as urban versus rural, conservative versus progressive, or those with social security versus those in precarious circumstances. What comparable or other lines are shaping the protests in Iran? Can they be described, for example, in terms of oppositions such as theocracy and secularism, generational conflicts, social inequalities, differences in education, or tensions between tradition and the future – or do such categories fall short?
And indeed, what role do women play in this complex situation? At the moment, a great many women are being featured on social media. They come across as both the driving force behind the protests and as symbols or icons of the movement: beautiful and courageous Joan of Arcs with cigarettes, but also as active participants in social media and, perhaps, as ambassadors to, for example, a European public.
Dear Corinna
I’d be happy to share with you the insights I’ve gained from my own experience as a woman who has lived, studied and worked in Iran for many years.
Economic triggers
In my opinion, the picture portrayed by the media here is very one-sided. What is currently happening in Iran is a complex mix of various factors. The original trigger for the protests was the economic situation in the country – in particular, the massive devaluation of the national currency. However, the protests were subsequently politicised, partly through slogans directed against the regime.
Double standards of those in power
There is a deep divide between those in power and the population. Many of the ideals for which large sections of the population fought in 1979 – and for which they overthrew the Shah – are no longer shared by the majority today. A key reason for this is the double standards and hypocrisy of those in power: they propagate revolutionary and religious ideals and demand that the population lead a simple, pious life, whilst they themselves and their children live in affluence – in some cases in the West.
Social changes
Added to this are massive repression and oppression, particularly against women. Iranian society was and remains deeply patriarchal. For a long time, the regime derived its justification for the oppression of women from society itself. However, society has changed over time, particularly the younger generations. Those in power, on the other hand – largely older men – are either unable or unwilling to acknowledge this change.
Following the protests of 2022, the so-called ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ movement, the enforcement of compulsory veiling was, in practice, relaxed to some extent. However, these changes were neither fundamental nor sustainable.
Sanctions
In summary, the central problem in Iran lies, on the one hand, in the gulf between the state’s values and those of the majority of the population, and, on the other hand, in the state’s double standards, coupled with mismanagement and corruption. The most serious issue, however, is the economic situation. Western sanctions also bear a significant share of the blame for this.
Democratic reforms lack a middle class
Reforms towards democracy require a stable middle class and an active intellectual public sphere. However, sanctions and corruption have caused this middle class in Iran to largely disappear. It is naïve to believe that sanctions exert pressure on the state. In fact, the state benefits from them: when intellectuals and elites have to fight for their economic survival instead of campaigning for civil society structures, this serves the interests of an authoritarian system perfectly.
"Afghanistan, too, was once attacked under the pretext of women’s liberation. And what is the situation of Afghan women today?”
Now the US President claims he wants to “save” the Iranians – by attacking Iran, overthrowing the mullahs and installing the son of the last Shah in power. However, we have seen all too clearly what US “rescue” operations have looked like in Iraq, Syria, Libya or Afghanistan: destruction, chaos, millions of deaths (see Costs of War) and the rise of groups such as ISIS or the Taliban. Afghanistan, too, was once attacked under the pretext of women’s liberation. And what is the situation for Afghan women today?
Women as a motif and as a pretext
The image of women as heroines of a movement is an old motif in propaganda used to legitimise war. Of course, women take to the streets alongside men – but this instrumentalisation is wrong. Furthermore, the widely circulated image of a woman burning a portrait of the Iranian Supreme Leader with a cigarette was not taken in Iran (see the article at Deutsche Welle).
Exploitation of legitimate protests
The people of Iran want democracy and freedom, not war, not ‘rescue’ from outside, and not a return to the monarchy. Foreign intervention – whether in the form of sanctions, military attacks or war – does not help the population. It leads to more chaos and the deaths of innocent people.
I’m happy to share here an article by experts who, on behalf of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, provide a very nuanced analysis of the situation:
Among other things, the article explains how the CIA and Mossad infiltrated armed operatives amongst the protesters – something that has been admitted by the Israeli and American sides themselves. In this way, legitimate protests are once again being exploited from outside, leading to further violence and the deaths of innocent people.
Between a rock and a hard place
The situation is tragic. We are caught between a rock and a hard place, and there seems to be no easy way out of this dilemma.
I hope this information helps you to better understand the situation. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any further questions.
Kind regards